Below is a guest post by Robert Enlow, President and CEO of The Foundation for Educational Choice:
Lots of people have been talking about the philosophy of school choice or the benefits of school choice or why people should support the school choice proposal in front of the Indiana legislature.
What I want to do is focus on a time ten years from now – after Indiana has passed school choice.
Predicting the future, of course, is always a risky business. I remember when Dr. Milton Friedman, our Foundation’s founder, was alive. People would come up to him and earnestly ask him to predict what the market would do in the next year. He would always respond with a simple answer, “I predict that the market will go up and I predict it will go down.”
So, with that note of caution in mind, here is what my 16 years of experience tells me will happen in ten years if the scholarship bill that is currently in front of the legislature passes this year.
- The sky will not have fallen on public education. There won’t have been massive layoffs nor huge spending cuts in public schools. Dogs and cats aren’t living together and our communities haven’t fallen apart as some predict. Instead, we are more likely to see public and private school teachers working together to meet the needs of individual children and more likely to see greater accountability for poorer quality teachers in both public and private schools.
- If the same trend holds true in Indiana as it does around the rest of the country, the vast majority of legislators who supported school choice will have retained their seats in the legislature, and the few that have lost will probably have been replaced for reasons other than school choice. Moreover, there will have been an increase in support for school choice among Democrat legislators. In 1999, when Jeb Bush’s reforms passed in Florida, not a single Democrat legislator supported school choice. Today, half the black caucus and all of the Hispanic caucus support school choice. Those who were opposed at the start have now changed course and support the program because they realize it disproportionately helps their community.
- The opponents who said that school choice was going to drain millions of dollars from cash-starved public schools are eating some crow. In ten years, the scholarship program will have created millions in savings to the state and taxpayers. If the programs in Milwaukee and Florida are any guide, Indiana will have saved around 40 million a year as a result of the program, and it will have become accepted wisdom at the state legislature that every child who takes a scholarship saves money.
- Existing private schools will be growing again and serving a population of low-and-middle income children. This is particularly true in urban areas where the mix of public, charter and private schools is creating a more vibrant education marketplace.
- Researchers have found data showing that public schools, particularly urban public schools, are beginning to respond to shifts in enrollment patterns caused by the growth in private and charter schools. Public schools in areas more exposed to scholarship students are making improvements greater than public schools less exposed to scholarship students, and public schools that are graded D or F under the state’s new accountability system are improving twice as fast as public schools rated C or higher. Public schools are shifting their focus entirely to achievement and school board discussions center more on increasing academic achievement instead of increasing the budget to go after truants.
- Most important, while the program started off slowly in year one and two, there are now between 20-40,000 children using scholarships to attend a private school of their choice. These children are overwhelmingly from low-income families. The graduation rate for these children has increased by 17-21% and the data shows significant improvements in their scores on standardized tests.
These are just a few of the things that I am confident will happen if the bill currently before the Indiana legislature passes this year.
However, if the bill allowed everyone to participate and increased the amount of the scholarships, I predict that two additional and crucial things will happen.
- Everything I predicted above will have happened at a much faster pace, particularly the focus on outcomes and achievement.
- Instead of slow but steady growth in the existing private school marketplace, we will see dramatic growth in the number of new school and educational models. Universities will double their efforts to educate K-12 students, thus reducing the need for college remediation. Existing private schools will be forced to reform their educational models faster in order to remain relevant. Entrepreneurs will introduce new and innovative educational models showing that costs can go down while quality can go up.
In the end, these changes along with the other reforms proposed by Governor Daniels and Dr. Bennett, will fix the system faster and avoid losing another generation of children.